February 27, 2013
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Future History of the US
I'm a long-time observer of trends in the US and I'm not too pleased with what seems to be happening here.
During the past thirty or so years there has been a pretty steady decline in the political and economic power of what had become the US middle class.
This group had become dominant during and after World War II with the general rise of wages and provided services from the Federal and State governments. The movement toward a more equitable way of life seemed to foretell a future where there would be much decreased poverty and many more people enjoying the good life. This was the culmination of a trend that had started in the 1890's, increased after 1900 and even weathered the great depression, when massive government spending encouraged private economic growth and left the US, after World War II as the first Superpower of the twentieth century.
Despite, or perhaps because of, the Cold War (1946-89) and the Korean War (1950-54) most citizens of the US enjoyed unparalleled economic wellbeing. However,a conservative backlash led to diminished union power - the unions were victims of their own success and at first the slow-down of average annual earnings was not so apparent. As jobs became tighter, there was a rise in concern about "other"competing groups and there was growing dissatisfaction with government regulations and decisions which seemed to many conservative voters to be both discriminatory and immoral.
Conservative politicians have taken advantage of this growing dissatisfaction to attract voters to their own agendas - tax relief for the business and financial community (their primary financial supporters) and attempts to undo controversial government decisions (Abortion, environmental protection, and equal rights among others). These positions seemed to blind many voters to the growing economic problems and disparity caused by decreased government revenue; which is, after all, mostly spent in ways which encourages middle-class wellbeing.
While these basically conservative policies eventually led to two disastrous wars (Viet Nam and Iraq) and the over-all collapse of the financial system, there still seems to be enough residual support for their basic ideas so that conservatives enjoy the ability to check and sometimes undo attempts to use Government power to bring the US back on the track it left several decades ago. This despite growing voter attempts to overcome the conservative agenda.
If present trends continue, I think the glory days of the US have ended. It will be a country with chronic fairly large unemployment - thus keeping wages at a minimum - with a fairly large class of poor, poorly educated, poorly paid, workers and a small very wealthy group of financial and business owners; and certainly a country with very much diminished power in the world.
Comments (8)
American business simply didn't plan on competition. They enjoyed the prosperity of bombs to lead the industrial revolution, but eventually these countries like Germany and Japan grew back. We didn't plan on this, not that there is much we could do. Unions, while at one time a good idea, priced themselves out of the market forcing capitalists to go overseas to do business in some way they could afford. But lets face it, most of them left because they could exploit the workers and environment without penalty, while the middle class of America went into debt to keep the prosperity train rolling. We are in for a huge adjustment while these competing countries gear up and soon their expenses will be more on par with ours. Meanwhile we need to concentrate on new industries and the green market is a great place to start. We have a global crisis coming and new idea's are the only way we will survive it.
@brown_buffalo - As a matter of fact, American workers are probably among the most productive in the world - that's why so many foreign-owned consumer products are made here in the US. The problem is, IMHO, essentially a political one rather than economic. Saying the middle/working class went into debt to keep the prosperity train rolling, is a clear case of blaming the victims.
But isn't that what the middle class did? They went into debt rather than pay attention to what was going on. It took abortion for most of them to look at what was happening in politics. Now we are plagued with congress people and representatives that are single issue voters. They even have their own party within a party. Now it's going to take something radical to rid outselves of these pests and meanwhile nothing is getting done at a time when more people than ever are politically aware.
@italian_culture - Thanks Dario - I've passed your blog address along
Do you think the American dream was sacrificed?
@Zeal4living - Hi Jurgens, The American Dream is, IMHO, in some danger of being replaced - but I still have faith in the resilience of the american political system - the re-election of Obama is evidence of this. Current economic trends look encouraging, but the recent mandated govt. expense reductions - the "Sequester"will certainly make middle class economic growth more difficult.
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